AxiomSync
Northwind Analytics
from connected ledger, billing and CRM data, deterministic, and traceable input-to-output.
The month in one read.
A Series B B2B SaaS business, $8.4M ARR, 62 employees. Health is trending up, but margin and cash efficiency are the story this month.
Northwind is fundamentally healthy and growing, ARR is up 42%, but margin and cash efficiency are the story this month. Gross Margin and CAC Payback are the two highest-criticality signals: not the biggest misses in isolation, but the ones that propagate. Together they drag EBITDA, Rule of 40, Burn Multiple and Cash Runway. The single highest-leverage move this quarter is collections; the structural fix is margin.
- 1
Cash runway is tightening
14 months today, projected to ~11 next quarter at current collections pace. Accelerating DSO 54→45 recovers ~$188k and roughly one month of runway.
- 2
Gross margin is the structural fix
68% vs a 75% target, down three consecutive months. Root cause is a product-mix shift toward lower-margin SKUs, the largest single item in the bridge at $610k/yr.
- 3
Growth engine is efficient enough to defend
NRR at 103% and CAC Payback at 19.2mo are watch-items, not fires, but they gate Rule of 40 (34) and the path back above the 40 line.
Ten signals, ranked by criticality.
Each KPI is scored against target and triaged by a composite of gap, trend and downstream impact. Three critical, six on watch, one on track.
| Metric | Actual | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 68% | 75% | Critical |
| CAC Payback | 19.2mo | 12mo | Critical |
| Cash Runway | 14mo | 18mo | Critical |
| DSO | 54d | 45d | Watch |
| Net Revenue Retention | 103% | 110% | Watch |
| Burn Multiple | 1.8x | 1.2x | Watch |
| Magic Number | 0.7 | 1.0 | Watch |
| Logo Churn | 2.1% | 1.5% | Watch |
| ARR Growth | 42% | 40% | On track |
| Rule of 40 | 34 | 40 | Watch |
Every gap, priced in dollars.
Each KPI shortfall converted to its annualised revenue impact and ranked by size. This is the money section, the debate is the response, not the number.
Where the runway goes next.
At the current collections pace, Cash Runway tightens from 14 months to roughly 11 months over the next quarter. The trajectory below shows the projected central path and its confidence band.
Highest-leverage move, accelerate collections
Tightening DSO from 54 to 45 days recovers roughly $188k and adds about one month of runway. It is the fastest, most controllable lever available this quarter and requires no pricing or product change.
Collections. DSO 54→45 buys time and cash while the structural work lands. Fully within Northwind's control.
Gross Margin. The three-month decline traces to a product-mix shift toward lower-margin SKUs; the durable fix is pricing and mix, not collections.
Watch items & how the numbers work.
The board-level risks to hold in view this quarter, followed by the methodology behind every figure in this pack.
Cash Runway Critical
14 months today, projected to ~11 next quarter at current pace. Below the 18-month target and the single most time-sensitive constraint on the plan.
Customer Concentration Watch
Top account represents 19% of ARR. A single non-renewal would move NRR, ARR growth and runway simultaneously, a correlated, not isolated, exposure.
Gross Margin Trend Watch
Down three consecutive months on lower-margin product mix. Trend, not level, is the concern, it feeds directly into the structural fix on the prior page.
How these numbers are computed
Every figure in this pack is deterministic and traceable. Nothing is estimated to fill a gap, and nothing is shown that cannot be traced back to connected source data.
Each KPI, dollar figure and narrative line traces through defined, testable steps to the ledger, billing and CRM records it came from.
Missing an input? The metric is marked uncomputable and the pack tells you what to connect. No value is ever fabricated to complete a chart.
Criticality is a fixed, deterministic composite: the same inputs always yield the same ranking.
Gaps are converted to annualised revenue impact via the metric's own driver, then ranked. Totals are additive across independent gaps.
The 90-day projection is conditioned on the current business regime. Confidence bands show the range of outcomes, not a single guessed line.
Row-level isolation per workspace, encryption at rest and in transit. Only anonymised KPI aggregates reach the narrative layer.